All-Star Season, A Little Early
Posted on June 17th, 2013
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All-Star Season, A Little Early

by Kevin on June 17, 2013 at 12:01 am

That’s right, tomorrow (Tuesday the 18th) is the California-Carolina League All-Star Game.  Yep, I’m going.  And you can, too.

I’ve gone to a few of these minor league All-Star Games.  The California and Carolina League take turns hosting, and I’ve attended the last two times they were on the west coast, in Stockton and Modesto.  I also attended the last minor league All-Star Game hosted by a Giants affiliate, which was the Double-A Eastern League All-Star Game in 2007 (the day after San Francisco hosted the major league version), back when the farm team was the Connecticut Defenders.

That game was fogged out after a few innings.  Seriously.  There’s a reason the team left Connecticut for Richmond, Virginia.

The minor league All-Star affairs are smaller events than what happened in San Francisco in 2007, obviously, but they’re still lots of fun.  And the Giants prospects will make a strong showing.  A game-high 8 participants were selected from San Jose, although two won’t be able to play due to injury (one of whom is Bay Area native Ryan Cavan).

Surprisingly, the team does not include some of the Giants many expected to make the game.  Top pitching prospects Kyle Crick and Clayton Blackburn have battled injury and consistency.  But the Giants have some prospects worth noting.  Josh Osich is a left-hander that has closer potential out of the bullpen, if the team doesn’t want to see his ceiling as a starter.  Edwin Escobar is a talented young pitcher that is a real sleeper prospect.  Ty Blach was a 5th-rounder last year who didn’t play before this year, and has really made a name for himself in a rotation of top prospects.

Oh, and there’s a kid named Angel Villalona.  Unbelievably, he’s still just 22, after being signed in 2006 as a 16-year old out of the Dominican.  This is his first year back in pro ball after all that messiness.  He’s struggled in some ways, but he still has that monster power that has made him so tantalizing.  And he’ll be in the home run derby.

So come for the prospects.  Stay for the fun…and Turkey Mike’s BBQ.  25 years ago this past weekend, Bull Durham got released.  Enjoy the minor league baseball that it celebrated, that bay area fans can truly enjoy.  At least, until the A’s get their way and kick it out.

After all, you could use a distraction from the big league team’s troubles right about now.

Between you and me, I hope we’ll have a beer batter during the All-Star Game.  That’d be AWESOME!

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Breaking Down The SF Giants 2013 Draft

by Kevin on June 9, 2013 at 1:54 pm
Posted In: Blog

The MLB Draft always results in people getting their eyes glazed over at all the picks.  At least now it’s only 40, and not 50 like when I covered the draft.  But the truth is, no one is guaranteed to ever make the majors (even the first round guys), and chances are that at least (AT LEAST!) 35 of those 40 players never taste the bigs.  And even then, who knows when that fourth rounder (Brandon Crawford), fifth rounder (Brandon Belt), or 28th rounder (Sergio Romo) will make a huge impact? Heck, even that 50th rounder (Marvin Benard!).  So, to help you look ahead, here are the things you need to know about the Giants draft this year.

Positioning Some High School Picks

The Giants taking Christian Arroyo in the first round marked the first time the Giants went with a high school position player in the first round since 1998, when they selected Tony Torcato.  That pick didn’t work out so well in the end, as Torcato only managed to grab cups of coffee in four major league seasons from 2002-2005 (all with the Giants), making just 53 plate appearances and putting up a .298/.346/.340 slash line.

But that’s not all.  It’s the first time since 1974 that the Giants have used their top two picks on high school position players, when the Giants picked up second baseman Terry Lee and catcher Kenny Kolkhorst in the first and second rounds, respectively.  Neither Lee nor Kolkhorst ever made the majors with any franchise.

Mid and Late Round Sleepers

• Dan Slania (5th Round) – Slania was a college reliever (something the Giants targeted often in the draft), working as Notre Dame’s closer.  What makes Slania stand out is good mechanics, good velocity (mid-90’s) and a real strikeout pitch with a slider.  The only question with him is do the Giants try to convert him to starter or not?

• Tyler Horan (8th Round) – The Giants love the Cape Cod League, the premier wood-bat summer league and a place to see how hitters will hit without the aluminum colleges use.  Horan led the Cape Cod league in home runs.  Horan has great batspeed and an easy, pure swing.  Unlike many Giants picks, however, Horan is not a great athlete and will be stuck to left field, being forced to move solely on his power hitting.  But he has real power.

• John Riley (31st Round) – Baseball America ranked him as their #150 draft prospect. He was picked at #942 overall. This high school catcher has some power in his swing, though he’s a bit raw both at the plate and behind it.  He’s considered signable away from his commitment to Cal, although it will be interesting to see how the low round he was picked at will affect that.  The Giants made a steal in the 26th round of 2011 when they picked, and signed, Clayton Blackburn.  Riley could be another impact high schooler who is a steal late.

So You Think The Giants Could Have Gotten Their Top Picks Later In The Draft…

It’s noted above that John Riley was a bit of a steal, as the #150 prospect (as ranked by Baseball America) and not going until close to the 1,000th pick overall.  But this gets even more intriguing.  BA’s writeup, which happens weeks before the draft, connected Riley to the Giants as the team that liked him best.  They suggested the Giants might draft him “As high as the second round.”  Well, it seems they made the right risk in waiting on a player in this draft…if he decides to sign.

Flights on Height

The Giants sure were trying to find some tall pitchers on the mound.  The looks at tall pitchers started on Day 2, as the Giants 6’5” right hander Daniel Slania, a reliever out of Notre Dame (who might be looked at as a starter) in the fifth round.  Not long after in the ninth round, the Giants picked up 6’6” southpaw Donald Snelten out of Minnesota.  But in Day 3, things picked up.  There was:

• 13th rounder 6’5” righty Pat Young from Villanova;

• 14th round Nick Jones, a 6’6” left-hander from Alabama’s Chattahoochee Valley Community College;

• Stanford’s lefty 6’8” Garrett Hughes in the 19th round;

• 6’5” righty Ethan Miller from San Diego State in the 22nd round;

• 6’7” Dylan Brooks, a right-hander from Canada’s Lord Dorchester SS in the 30th round;

• And then they topped it off (literally) with 6’9” Christopher Viall from Soquel High School here in Northern California, another right-hander.

Staying Home

While the Giants didn’t pick Hillsborough’s Matt Krook as many mock drafts predicted, the Giants did pick several local players.  The Giants went to the Stanford well twice, with first baseman Brian Ragira in the fourth round and RHP Garrett Hughes in the 19th round.  In addition to this, they picked up Willow Glen High School (San Jose) catcher John Riley in the 31st round, Burlingame High School RHP Grant Goodman in the 36th round, Soquel High School RHP Christopher Viall in the 39th round, and Granada High School (Livermore) outfielder Ryan Kirby in the 40th and final round.

If you want to stretch things out, you could also include 3rd round pick Chase Johnson, a RHP from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo (Hey, it’s closer than Los Angeles).  And you could also point out that the 2nd round pick Ryder Jones, a high schooler from North Carolina, is committed to Stanford.

High School players drafted late are usually unlikely to sign, but the local connection may tempt one or two of them to take a chance.

Playing the Cardinal (not the St. Louis variety)

As mentioned, the Giants took two players from nearby college baseball power Stanford University, in the fourth and 19th rounds respectively.  The last time the Giants picked up a player from Stanford was in 2011, on 42nd rounder Danny Sandbrink, a right-handed pitcher currently in the San Jose bullpen.  Before that, the Giants hadn’t picked someone from Stanford since 1989, when the picked up second baseman Frank Carey in the 8th round.

Brian Ragira in the fourth round is the highest pick of a Stanford player ever by the Giants, and this is also the first time they’ve drafted two Stanford players in the same draft.

The Name Game

Here are the best names found on the Giants draft list.

• Nick Vander Tuig (6th round, UCLA) – Who doesn’t want to see a matchup between Yasiel Puig and Vander Tuig now?

• Johneshwy Fargas (11th round, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy) – It’s good news that Augusta no longer has baseball on the radio, because their announcers would be on the DL with a tongue-twist-sprain on this name.

• Brandon Zajac (23rd round, Cleveland State CC in Tennessee, of course) – One of two Brandons, but you have to love a ‘Z’ last name.

• Chattahoochee Valley Community College (14th round pick Nick Jones) – Funny names are not the province of players.  The baseball draft is a great list of small school names as well.

The Final Numbers

14 – High School Picks

3 – Community College Picks

23 – College Picks

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5 Catchers

11 Infielders

3 Outfielders

15 Right-Handed Pitchers

6 Left-Handed Pitchers

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Quick Thoughts on Christian Arroyo, the SF Giants 2013 1st Round Pick

by Kevin on June 6, 2013 at 11:06 pm
Posted In: Blog

Christian Arroyo is a solid defensive shortstop who can hit well, but not for power.  There are a lot of questions about him, and even more questions about the Giants’ mentality.  So let’s look at a scouting report, and then translate it.

He doesn’t stand out for his tools as much as his good baseball instincts and his ability to seemingly rise to the occasion. 

Uh oh.  You rarely hear anyone talk about baseball instincts with a top prospect, or much of anyone in the first round.

Arroyo likely won’t ever have much power, but makes good contact and covers the plate well.

The Giants have fallen in love with Scutaro-style players.

He makes all the routine plays and has solid range.

He can play shortstop.  But if he follows Brandon Crawford out there, he’s going to look awful.

He is committed to Florida.

Means nothing.  Every high schooler’s committed somewhere.

Baseball America ranked Arroyo 102nd, Keith Law had him 99th.

And the Giants took him 25th.

Looking at the video, you’ve got a player who is pretty mechanically sound.  It’s not a perfect swing, but it’s good.  The batspeed doesn’t seem as good in this video as I see in others, but that’s where the proclamations about his lack of power comes from.  If he can maintain good bat control, he can be a Marco Scutaro kind of player.  At least, at his ceiling.

Is that worth a first rounder?  One with several other young hitters with higher, riskier ceilings, or young pitchers with promise?  To a degree, this feels like a younger 2011 version of Joe Panik.  Arroyo isn’t as polished, but could go further.

And there’s one other tidbit…

 

 

Smarts isn’t always the best thing for a ballplayer, but hopefully it means that the things that he has problems with, he can learn his way out of.

Any regrets aside, this is your 2013 San Francisco Giants first round pick.

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Quick Thoughts On Ryder Jones, the SF Giants 2013 2nd Round Pick

by Kevin on June 6, 2013 at 11:02 pm
Posted In: Blog

So, in the second round, with the 64th overall pick, the San Francisco Giants picked up Ryder Jones.  He’s another high school shortstop, this time out of North Carolina, though he’s expected to move to third base at the next level.  He was also listed by Baseball America as the #197 prospect.  Taken with the 64th pick.  Other sites didn’t bother listing him.

However, it’s reported that Jones has some real power in that left-handed swing of his.  So let’s take a look at it.

What the hell was that?

His front leg is one of the most distinctive pre-swing movements since Todd Linden’s dog-leg-peeing step.  That knee looks like it’s going to collapse.  Then, he swings his hips.  A few seconds later, his hands follow.

Wow.  That’s a mechanical mess.

Now, to be fair, much of Jones’ low ranking may have to do with his commitment: his plan was to go play at Stanford.  There are few schools more expensive to buy a commitment away from.  In the second round, the Giants won’t be able to spend too much without hamstringing their other picks.  That’s especially true with a possibly expensive first round pick.

But if the Giants sign him, they’ll have to work out a lot of issues.   And with the Gary Brown struggles, I’m not exactly trusting the Giants to be able to work out a funky swing.

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Who Is Going To Replace Vogelsong?

by Kevin on May 21, 2013 at 12:28 am
Posted In: Blog

Well, that wasn’t nice to watch.

I’ve been rough on Ryan Vogelsong this season because, well, his pitching had been pretty rough.  I thought he’d be the first one to miss a start, but not like this.  Seeing him get hit on the hand pretty much ruined a big win that the Giants (and their fans) needed.

Vogelsong’s comeback story will always be one of my favorite stories of Giants for the rest of my life, wherever his story goes from here.  We’ve seen a few natural superstars, some underdogs and some renaissances, but few players ever are a true story of inspiration like Vogelsong has been.  I expect he has another comeback in him.

Unfortunately, we do need to talk about what happens now before that comeback happens.  The Giants need a starter, and not just a spot starter.  They’ll need a two-month guy that can come into a rotation in turmoil and turn things around.  So here’s some odds on who might come in and slip into that 5th spot.

Mike Kickham: The 24-year old lefty prospect has always been an under-the-radar kind of guy, but that’s mostly because his stats have never been too overwhelming.  Still, Kickham opened some eyes in Richmond, posting a 3.05 ERA with 137 strikeouts against 75 walks.  That 137 strikeouts was second in the league.  He has a fastball in the low 90s with a decent slider and changeup, but he lives on having a lot of motion on his pitches.

This season, Kickham started off a bit rough in Fresno with three straight starts of allowing five runs or more to end the month of April.  However, since May has begun he has a 1.80 ERA in four starts.

As a prospect, I’ve never been overly high on Kickham because of his tendency to be a bit wild.  That was one of his downsides in Richmond, and he hasn’t been great with his control in Fresno either.  He’ll need to have Posey behind the plate to keep his wildness from becoming wild pitches, and to keep him calm.  He’ll be facing mature hitters who will wait for their pitch, and as a rookie, he won’t get a lot of calls his way.  That has flustered him in the past.

That said, I think Kickham makes the most sense for this move.  He’s got the best upside, is the most ready and has the best momentum. Odds: 5-to-2

Chad Gaudin: No doubt about it, he’s having the best season of his life.  At 30 and in his 11th season in the majors, his 2.10 ERA so far is easily his best season mark in his career, but there’s a lot of season to go.  Despite a three-run hiccup in Toronto, Gaudin has consistently been one of the best Giants’ relievers in the bullpen, going longer stints and shorter ones, and been a calming influence on games that the starters had sometimes let get out of control.

The downside is that starting is something from long ago for him, and he’s never been successful at it.  He hasn’t started in the majors at all since 2009, and he’s never been particularly good at it.  The last games he started in the minors were nine starts in 2009, and he had a 5.24 ERA overall in 14 appearances.  His longest outing of the season was that three-run game in Toronto, where he threw 72 pitches; before that, he’d broken the plane of 35 pitches in an outing only once.  The other side is that he is getting hit harder by lefties (.843 OPS against) than he did as a starter.  In that 2009 season the OPS against was just .823.

Gaudin also gets points for being on the 40-man roster, unlike Kickham and Loux.  He also gets points for having a chin beard, an intimidating addition to the Giants’ lineup of facial hair matchups.

I like Gaudin.  He was a great pickup in the offseason, and I think the long relief role has been a great find for him.  But it’s hard for me to see the Giants trying to stretch him out now.  Odds: 7-to-2

Shane Loux: Loux, at least, is a known quantity to Giants fans.  He made 19 appearances for the team in 2012, with a 4.97 ERA.  But Loux doesn’t have a great Major League track record behind him.  He’s played only parts of five seasons in the majors, racking up 58 appearances and 13 starts (none of which came with the Giants).  However, he was a starter in Fresno in both 2011 and is again this season (notably working solely as a reliever last season).

Loux has made seven starts, putting up a 3.68 ERA.  He’s had a fair mix of starts, both good and not-as-good  He had his best, a six-inning start allowing just two hits, a walk and only an unearned run, this past Friday.  However, to say he’s not overpowering is a bit of an understatement.  He’s struck out only 15 batters in 36 2/3 innings, which is also how many he’s walked.

There’s no doubt that Loux is an underwhelming option.  In the past, as a starter, he’s rarely been encouraging, though he has been recently.  If this were a single, spot start, I’d be picking him.  But for a longer stint, I think major league teams would be likely to adapt to him quickly.  I don’t see it. Odds: 5-to-1

 

Chris Heston: The 25-year old Heston got a bit of a bandwagon going after winning the ERA title in the Double-A Eastern League last season, posting a 2.24 ERA.  With 135 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings, and just 40 walks, he seemed to be in line to be the fabled sixth starter-in-waiting.

However, his lack of velocity (he works in the upper 80’s as a right-hander) along with some possibly bad luck, and he’s run into trouble in Fresno.  He has a 5.33 ERA in nine starts, and most notably, he’s getting hit around.  His WHIP has jumped from 1.103 in Double-A to 1.658 so far in Fresno, both thanks to giving up more hits and more walks.

Heston’s not one to be given up on as a prospect quite yet, and he has a small thing going for him by being on the 40-man roster already, but he clearly isn’t ready for the majors yet. Odds: 15-to-1

Justin Fitzgerald: Now 27, the Santa Rosa native and UC Davis grad started the season in Richmond.  He had a 1.09 ERA in six starts, and then moved up to Fresno, where in his only start he gave up two earned runs in five innings, albeit while giving up nine hits and two walks.  What is unpalatable about this is that it was Fitzgerald’s third season at Richmond, which is rare for any prospect to manage without a major injury or rehab.  At three repeats, a huge improvement is almost expected.

The 11th round pick has been nothing if not consistent the rest of his career, posting a slowly improving ERA that went from 3.86 in 2008 to 3.22 this season.  He got some attention for flashing 95 MPH in college, but has been closer to the low-90′s as a pro.  He’s just been steady, other than his unusual repetitions in Richmond.

Honestly, I’m going through this just to let you know who he is.  Fitzgerald was placed on the DL by Fresno on Thursday, May 16th, and was expected to miss two turns at least with a right elbow strain.  That means he’s pretty much unavailable right now.  He might be a consideration down the line if the initial replacement struggles, but he’ll need to come back and prove he can handle some Triple-A starts first.  Odds: 100-to-1 for now, 8-to-1 in mid-June.

Kyle Crick/Clayton Blackburn/Chris Stratton: I don’t need to separate any of these three out.  All these top prospects are pitching at Single-A.  Not only is that a fair indication of not being ready for the majors, but it also means their development is far off and that pushing anyone to the majors will start their options clock far too early.  Some crazy KNBR callers may want to see them, but it ain’t happening: Odds: 113-to-1

Brian Wilson: Please.  Odds: Slightly Better Than Finding Sasquatch

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Giants Farm System: Names to Watch in 2013

by Kevin on April 2, 2013 at 7:06 pm
Posted In: Blog

The major league season has begun, but the farm is about to start games as well.  For all you Giants fans out there, here’s a quick guide to the guys you should keep an eye on at each level of the farm system for the future of the Giants.

Fresno Grizzlies (AAA):

• Gary Brown – The top pick in 2010, Brown was expected to be on the fast track to be the Giants center fielder and leadoff hitter, but a tough year in Richmond slowed things, and the deal with Angel Pagan complicates things.  It’s possible that Pagan and his routes may be headed for left field, but when that will happen depends on Brown.  He’s the most interesting guy in Fresno.

• Francisco Peguero and Cole Gillespie – While Brown has the higher ceiling, Gillespie and Peguero are the guys who are likely to help out this season.  Both have talent, but also have frustrations.  If the Andres Torres and Gregor Blanco have problems, Gillespie and Peguero will be battling to be the first man up.

• Chris Heston and Michael Kickham – Speaking of the guys competing to be the callups, Heston and Kickham were quietly the best pitchers in Double-A Richmond, and will be kept an eye on in case of injuries.  They don’t have the ceiling of the stars lower in the system, but could be major leaguers in either a starting or relief role eventually.

• Heath Hembree – Hembree came into the season last year as an expected heir to closer Brian Wilson.  But he had a 4.74 ERA in Fresno last year, and only 15 saves with 36 strikeouts and 20 walks in 38 innings.  Hembree was just 23 last season, so there’s a chance for a bounceback.  After what happened to Wilson and the shaky hold that Sergio Romo has on the closer role, eyes will be on Hembree to see if he can produce.

Richmond Flying Squirrels (AA):

• Joe Panik – The Giants’ top pick in 2011 is finally moving to second base, and has a three-year timetable (also known as Marco Scutaro’s contract) to get ready.  Panik isn’t a power hitter, but he makes great contact, draws walks and is a sneaky dangerous hitter.  His year in San Jose wasn’t as good as expected, but there are some high hopes for him.

• Andrew Susac – The catcher who made it possible for the Giants to trade Tommy Joseph, Susac is highly rated but had a really rough year in San Jose.  It’s a bit of a surprise that he got pushed to Richmond.  However, he’s the guy the Giants will be keeping an eye on to let Posey truly move away from catcher longterm.

• Adam Duvall and Ricky Oropesa – Duvall plays third and Oropesa plays first.  These are two guys with big power but questions about their contact.  Duvall hit 30 in San Jose last year, while Oropesa hit 16.  Richmond can eat up guys like this, but a hitter with power will always inspire hope.

San Jose Giants (High-A):

• Kyle Crick and Clayton Blackburn – Duh.  These are a couple of the top pitchers.  Crick is your power pitcher with some control issues but the ability to be dominant.  Blackburn has a fastball that rivals Zito’s, but excellent control and an advanced feel for pitches, especially for someone as young as he is.

• Angel Villalona – If you haven’t heard his name before, you obviously don’t follow mugshots.  Villalona was a big-money signee out of the Dominican Republic…in 2006.  He had so-so seasons as an incredibly young player until 2009, when he was charged with murder in the Dominican Republic.  After the charges were dropped, it took him time to get back into playing shape and get his visa back, but now he’s back in San Jose at the age of 22, where he last played with the Giants system in 2009 as an 18-year old.  Still has talent, but it’ll be interesting to see what he can do no matter what.

• Mac Williamson – A 3rd round pick from 2012, he hit .321 and nine home runs for the AZL and short-season Salem-Keizer.  Williamson has a lot of tools, but is very raw and has a bit of bust potential.  He’s getting a very aggressive push, so it will be interesting to see how he responds.

• Josh Osich – A 2011 draftee out of Oregon, Osich was a top pitcher prospect in college before injuries derailed the end of his college career.  He’s being used mostly as a reliever, but has strikeout tools and can be dominant against both righties and lefties.  There’s closer potential here with health.

Augusta GreenJackets (Low-A):

• Chris Stratton – The top draft pick in 2012, some expected him to make it to San Jose, but he had a rough spring as he is coming back from getting hit in the head with a ball during batting practice late last season.  Stratton has a big fastball, and could have as high a ceiling as Kyle Crick, with a faster timetable.

• Tyler Hollick – The 14th-round pick from the 2012 draft, Hollick only played down at the Arizona League to start his career, but was impressive.  He had 21 steals in 23 tries in 31 games.  He hit .301, but had a very impressive .441 on-base percentage.  No home runs, but he put together all the tools needed to be a speedster center fielder.

• Joseph Rapp – The Giants didn’t get a lot of power hitters in the 2012 draft, but Rapp may be the best.  He had 11 home runs in 64 games for Salem-Keizer, with an .839 OPS.  However, the 73 strikeouts in 239 at-bats isn’t encouraging.

• Mason McVay – The 6’7” lefty reliever made 18 appearances in Salem-Keizer, but put up some nice numbers.  In 30 1/3 innings, he struck out a very impressive 43 and had just a 1.19 ERA.  The 26th round pick has a lot of tools, and might move up the reliever scene fast.

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