The Lunatic Fringe

It’s going to be a mess out there this weekend…but it’ll be worth it.  PLAYOFFS!

Now if only we didn’t have to wait until the end of tonight to know when the Sunday game would be.

On that note…it’s time for some predictions.  Because I’m on the internet, and I have a keyboard and a site on which to pretend I know what I’m talking about.  So here goes nothing.

WILD CARD:

NL: Atlanta over St. Louis

AL: Texas over Baltimore

DIVISIONAL SERIES

NL: San Francisco over Cincinnati in 4; Washington over Atlanta in 5.

AL: Texas over New York in 4; Oakland over Detroit in 4.

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

NL: San Francisco over Washington in 6.

AL: Texas over Oakland in 5.

WORLD SERIES:

San Francisco over Texas in 6.

It’s kind of hard to do predictions when your team is in it.  It’s especially hard this year.  The truth is, there’s four NL teams that can win it all (and then there’s St. Louis).  I would not be surprised by any of them going the distance.  Cincinnati has the best pitching, especially the bullpen, but the hitting is a little shallow.  Atlanta has a fairly consistent pitching staff and perhaps the most consistent offense, plus the emotional “Win one for the Chipper” thing.  Washington has had one of the best pitchers in the league, and a surprisingly dangerous lineup.  San Francisco has the deepest starting staff, the MVP-to-be, and a lineup that has gotten hot in September.  Any of those four could win it all.

The AL isn’t as strong to me.  Texas feels like it’s coming apart at the seams, and they could easily lose in the Wild Card, even though they are the AL’s most talented team.  The Yankees are old, and even more vulnerable than the last couple of years.  The Tigers have a Triple Crown winner and a Cy Young pitcher, but an inconsistent team behind them.  The Orioles and A’s have played above their heads.  Don’t get me wrong, they have some good talent, but they aren’t teams that I’d look at on paper and bet on in the postseason.

For what it’s worth, five of 29 ESPN writers picked the Giants, including my favorite, Jayson Stark.  But there was no overwhelming pick.  Six people picked the Tigers, and six picked the Yankees (of course).  Five picked the Nationals, and four picked the Reds.  The Braves, A’s and Rangers each got one scattered pick.  So yea, there’s no consensus this year.

This will be a fun postseason to watch…or, it will be if the Giants win.

Can we blame either Sabean or Bochy for this showing?

These guys are a team that can win.  We know that, or else they wouldn’t be in the playoffs.  I’ll be the first to admit that they were playing over their heads the last few weeks in September, but they are a very good team.  Not perfect, but very good.

But this weekend they played like crap.  Pretty close to everyone.  I might make exceptions for George Kontos and Tim Lincecum.  Partial exception for Buster Posey, but the home run only makes it not complete crap, as he didn’t do much else.

So I guess I have to blame Bochy.  For as ready as the team was in 2010 to be in the playoffs, this year the team didn’t look prepared at all, mentally or otherwise.  They got slaughtered.  There were bad breaks, sure, but the team looked like they just gave up, especially in Game 2.  And Bochy’s moves in Game 2 were terrible.  Kontos did his job, and Lincecum did very well, both for himself and for the crowd, but he had the quick hook on Casilla since there seemed to be something wrong with him, and was too slow to recognize something wrong with Mota.

So, yes, I’m blaming Bochy.  And maybe a bit on Sabean for not finding a better filler for the hole in left field, although Gregor Blanco did a better job hitting in Game 1 than the rest of the team.

Guys, don’t let this be the last taste of live baseball in our mouths for 2012.  Because that was disgusting.

And….we’re home again.

How can this team not be able to go all out for this crowd?  Why do so many things seem to go dead?

The simple answer is, I don’t know.

I’m getting very worried about the pitching.  Cain relapsed a bit after the Perfect Game, though he had a good pennant race.  Not dominating, but good.  He hasn’t been even that in the postseason so far.  Vogelsong’s late swan dive was well documented.  Zito was unpredictable most of the season, so of course his September was great, but he has looked awful in the postseason.

But none of their troubles are as troubling as Bumgarner’s.

Bumgarner hit a wall.  That wall came on August 20th, when he threw 123 pitches in a 2-1 win against the Dodgers, right after a complete game victory against the Nationals.  Since then?  A 5.89 ERA in seven starts, allowing less than two earned runs only twice and getting into the sixth inning only four times.

Bumgarner looks tired.  His fastball tonight was Zitonian.  His control within the strike zone was bad, since he was up in the zone constantly.  He hasn’t been the same kid.

That’s when I realized that, for two of our starters, this is the first time they’ve hit upon innings like this.  Bumgarner only threw 111 innings in 2010.  Sure, he threw only slightly less innings in 2011 than he did this year, but this is the first time he’s had to keep pushing into October.  In Vogelsong’s case, he went above 100 innings only once before 2011.  For a 35-year old, that’s saying something.

And then again, Zito hasn’t had to pitch deep into October since 2006, either.

Bumgarner’s wall is troubling, though.  He’s young.  I don’t want to see him do something like what happened to Nen.  It wasn’t okay with Nen, and it won’t be okay with Bumgarner.  Bumgarner’s a big part of this team’s future.  I don’t want to go all Strasburg on this, but…should the Giants shut him down?

I’d be okay with moving him to relief, a la Lincecum.  Especially because Lincecum should be starting right now.

Don’t kill Bumgarner.  He’s better than this, we all know that.  I can only imagine the pressure on him to perform this year.  But a World Series isn’t worth mortgaging the future on.