The Lunatic Fringe

In case you missed it, we here at the Lunatic Fringe got to do a Guest Lecture at Surviving The World, a unique photo-webcomic by Dante Shepherd.  He’s a big baseball fan…but forgive him for rooting for the Red Sox, will ya?

As with any system, there are quite a few players who don’t make the Top 10.  With the Giants, it’s interesting because of quite a range of second-tier prospects (especially pitchers) that provide what depth there is in the Giants system.  More than a few guys that didn’t make our grouping were on other Top 10 lists.  So, real quick, here’s some words on the guys who didn’t make our list:

Adalberto Mejia, SP – Mejia was the youngest guy in the San Jose rotation (turning 20 last June) and had a very solid season with a 3.31 ERA.  Mejia has three plus pitches right now, with a two-seam fastball, a slider and a change up.  But his pure stuff is just a tick under some of the other guys, and he has a little more dominance to show.  He could be very good, however.

Martin Agosta, SP – Another pitcher who disappeared in the glut of good pitchers in the system, Agosta had a 2.06 ERA with 109 strikeouts in 91 2/3 innings.  Agosta could be a Top 10 guy next season.

Heath Hembree, RP – At times, Hembree seems like he’ll be the next Giants closer after Sergio Romo.  At other times, his inconsistency is deafening.  He got stronger in the second half after tweaking his slider, but that inconsistency kept him out of our Top 10 until he can keep using that slider for more than a season.  He’ll likely make the major leagues this season, perhaps right out of spring training, to give depth to the bullpen.

Angel Villalona, 1B – Perhaps no prospect has ever had such a wild ride as Villalona, both on the field and off.  In his first season back, he looked lost at the plate at times.  But his power was insane, showing off during the Home Run Derby as San Jose hosted the All-Star Game this year.  That power will keep him getting chances.

Chris Dominguez, 3B – Dominguez had a real bounce-back season in Fresno, batting .294 with 15 home runs.  He’s still a strikeout machine and not the best defensively, but he might have a shot at getting into the majors.

Ryder Jones, 3B – Jones was the other top 2013 draftee along with Christian Arroyo, but didn’t show much of his promised power.  He’s got a swing that’d make Batting Stance Guy smile, and that may be his undoing eventually.

Matt Duffy, SS – Other middle infielders steal the headlines, but Duffy had a solid season between Augusta and San Jose.  He answered the biggest issue he had with solid power (9 HR and a .443 slugging in 103 games), matching it with speed (25 steals in 32 attempts) and good plate discipline.  Only his defense is a worry, with 14 errors, but he’s a sleeper in the system.

Adam Duvall, 3B – Duvall has been one of the power prospects in the system, and putting up 17 home runs in Richmond is no small feat.  He’s getting better at third base defensively, but he needs to get that batting average up.  He should be in a good place in Fresno.

Mark Minicozzi, 1B/3B – Minicozzi is a feel-good story, having left the system after the 2007 season, but coming back in 2012 and having a great year in 2013.  However, at 31-years old, he’s not truly a major league prospect anymore.

Ehire Adrianza, SS – Adrianza was once a defense-first, offense-last prospect.  But he had a .310 batting average in 45 games with Fresno, and that gets him some second looks.  But he’s out of options, so he really needs to impress in Spring Training.

Keury Mella, SP – A young Dominican pitcher, Mella had a 2.25 ERA for the Arizona Rookie League.  He’s got to keep at it, but he’s one of the short-season pitchers to keep an eye on in Augusta.

And…the scouting reports for today’s players.

Chris Stratton, SP – Stratton is one of those guys who elicits a wide range of opinions.  He’s primarily a fastball and slider pitcher, which is why a lot of scouts like him, but because his curve and change up are so far behind, many scouts think he’s a reliever in the future.  On one hand, his concussion and time lost because of it are one reason he’s not on the same speedy path as a first rounder, but his lack of outright domination in Augusta has cooled some expectations of him.

Whatever the expectations are, Stratton has great tools.  His velocity ranges from the low-90’s, and can push up to 96.  His slider is a great strikeout pitch.  And he doesn’t have a lot of miles on his arm for a college pitcher.

For Stratton, the change up is his key.  Against left-handed batters, he had a .285 batting average against, but even more disturbing, he gave up flyballs by more than a 2-to-1 average.  Overall, he’s got ground ball stuff and gets ground balls from right-handed hitters.  By developing a change up to keep left-handed batters at bay, he should be able to greatly improve his overall statistics and live up to the more optimistic expectations that are laid upon him.

Edwin Escobar, SP – Escobar has become a very trendy pick for prospect hounds to push up the system.  Partially, this is from a great ceiling, and partially it’s about that he spent half a season in Double-A, making him the one with the highest level experience of the many second-tier pitching prospects the Giants have.

Escobar struggled his first three seasons in the minors (the first of which came with the Rangers), but has put together two legitimate good seasons since then.  The biggest change is an adjustment in his throwing motion to keep his elbow high.  Unfortunately, this is reminiscent of Jonathan Sanchez.  Keeping a high arm motion and arm slot was one of his problems, and it’s a high-maintenance type of problem.  That’s why Sanchez would vacillate between being a guy who was an error away from a perfect game to a guy who is now with his fifth team in four years.

To his credit, Escobar hasn’t shown that sort of inconsistently in-season that plagued Sanchez, so that he could prove that he can be a great pitcher that he has the talent to be.  But he will be interesting to keep an eye on, and because of his level, he could be the first pitcher up to the majors in the case of injury.

Andrew Susac, C – Not a lot of hitters could have a career .249 batting average in the minors, and be considered a top prospect, but the rules are different for catchers.  He might be a .250-ish hitting player, but he’s got some nice pop and patience at the plate, throws out 40% of attempted basestealers, and is still improving behind the plate.

Susac was a bit of a draft steal for the Giants.  More than a few draft experts thought the Giants might take Susac in the first round of the 2011 draft, but they first took Joe Panik in the first round, and then Kyle Crick in the sandwich round, and then got Susac in the second round.  Only injuries have held back Susac, who had a hamate bone injury that helped him slip in the draft, and some minor nicks the past two years.  After batting .360 in the Arizona Fall League (which is offensively minded) and walking 16 times against 11 strikeouts in 50 at-bats, the momentum is with him.

Of course, there’s not exactly a spot open in San Francisco.  Buster Posey is probably not getting traded away anytime soon, and Hector Sanchez has been a solid backup with some pop of his own.  But with better defensive skills, Susac could eventually replace Sanchez as the backup…or be trade bait to a team that wants a good catching prospect.

You don’t see much more confirmation of the split opinions about how to judge catchers and their different ceilings and floors than Susac.  Susac didn’t even make the Baseball America list of Top 10 Giants prospects, but with ESPN, he just missed the cut for the Top 100 prospects in all the majors.  Either way, expect to see Susac in the majors, eventually.

Clayton Blackburn, SP – To some, Blackburn’s 3.65 ERA in San Jose was a disappointment.  Mostly, it was those who ranked him so highly that he was occasionally ranked higher than Crick.  But Blackburn’s expectations have always been tempered by having a fastball that’s closer to the high-80’s than low-90’s.  He was still the control-strong pitcher that he had been before.

Blackburn got victimized by the home run, giving up 12 in the homer-friendly California League.  Blackburn still got more than his share of strikeouts, and recovered very nicely after two bad months in May and June.  That gives a lot of hope for him going into an Eastern League where the balls don’t fly out of the yard and control is more important.

The most common comparison for Blackburn has been Joe Blanton, which is as much about stuff as it is a heavy physical presence.  However, Blackburn looks like that kind of a guy.  He’d be unlikely to be an ace, but as a groundball, control pitcher who is already averaging just under six innings a start despite being just 20 years old last year and no health problems, Blackburn could be that efficient, middle-of-the-rotation guy that teams would love to have.

Also…awesome name.  Not gonna change my mind on that.