Just when you were actually thinking the Giants would stay pat, they do exactly what they’ve done four years out of the past five (2011 being the exception): They get a guy who’s one of the lower-tier trade targets.
Okay, so Mike Leake isn’t exactly a Marco Scutaro type of trade, Scutaro being a guy who was probably seen by most teams as bench material. Nor was he a Jake Peavy, a guy who had been struggling much of the year.
Leake is having one of his best years, not quite a career year, but his 3.56 ERA is a bit under his career ERA of 3.87. He doesn’t walk too many batters, won’t strike out too many, either. He generally gets a few more ground balls than fly balls, but has had some problems with giving up home runs. This is particularly true at home (9 home runs in 65.2 innings) than on the road (5 in 71 innings).
Oh, and by the way, in the three-year split from 2012-2014, the park he has his best ERA at is AT&T Park, at 1.17. He had a 4.22 ERA at Great American Ballpark, his home park.
But that’s not all to like about Leake. The San Diego kid grew up a Giants fan (because of course he did), and he was apparently both interested in becoming a Giant and the Giants were very interested in him, according to Andy Baggarly. By the way, that article is from Mid-May, long before the trade deadline speculation really began. Leake is a free agent after this season, but it sounds like the Giants may be in prime position for him to return.
So, let’s talk price.
Keury Mella is the big name the Giants gave up, alongside the more familiar but lower ceiling Adam Duval.
Keury Mella, 21, was recently ranked as the Giants’ top prospect by MLB.com, and #2 by BaseballAmerica, moving up from being a #4 guy at the start of the season as Susac got to the majors regularly, and Crick fell. He throws mid-90’s with good sinking movement. He’s got a solid curve and changeup to match that with. With a 3.31 ERA in San Jose, a hitter’s league, he’s been looking strong.
The biggest question with Mella, is his health. He struggled to a 3.93 ERA in a pitcher’s league during the first half of last season, before taking time off with a sore rotator cuff. That’s the kind of thing you want to pay attention to. Also, for a guy with a mid-90’s fastball, he barely has struck out more than 1 per inning, something you look for in a low minors prospect. His walk rate, 2.9/9 IP this season, is solid and not far off from his career average.
Mella is a guy that gets overlooked, for whatever reason, but was coming into his own this season. He’s certainly a top guy and has a very good shot to make the majors, but with many top draft pick pitchers in the system, even with Crick struggling this year, the Giants had depth to deal from.
Adam Duvall, 26, is more familiar to Giants fans. He made the majors last season, and though he only hit .192 with the Giants, he had three home runs to help the team out. This year, though, the power has come through in Sacramento, where he has 26 so far this season. He had 27 in Fresno last year (30 total with the majors), and 30 in San Jose. He leads the PCL this season (20 is the 2nd place total by Reno/Arizona’s Jamie Romak).
However, at 26, Duvall has been a late bloomer and his age and questions about his contact have kept him low on prospect lists. MLB.com has him at #25 for the Giants and Baseball America didn’t even rank him at the start of 2015.
He was drafted as a second baseman, and the team worked him hard throughout the minors to move him to third, where his mobility limited him. He’s also battled diabetes, which he was diagnosed with in 2012. He can play either first or third, but won’t be a great defender at either position. However, his money-maker is his very legitimate power, and it should get him chances in the majors.
Where the trade makes sense for the Giants is that those chances would be limited with San Francisco. Although the Giants notoriously always seem to need power, Duffy stepped up and took the third base job, and first base has already proven to be a place with limited availability (just as the DFA’d and current Pirate Travis Ishikawa). In Cincinnati, Duvall gets a ballpark that is better suited for a power hitter. However, with Todd Frazier a fan favorite at third and Joey Votto in the second year of a 10-year deal at first, the best Duvall could hope for would be a bench role there.
The trade fits the Giants, because even though they gave up talent at pitching, they were dealing from a serious area of depth, and with Duvall, they traded an older prospect who didn’t really fit with the club. And they get a promising starting pitcher, not an ace, but a good rotation-filler and a good fit for San Francisco. There’s not a lot to hate with this trade.
