The Lunatic Fringe

So, here I was, researching Kanye West jokes, and the Giants make a serious baseball move.

It seems there’s a split between Giants fans about Tim Lincecum.  Many, of whom a general stereotype of being less hardcore could be considered, like seeing Lincecum back after all he’s done with the Giants, good and bad.  Others, of whom you might see a more sabermetric stereotype, are less enthused, particularly about the price.

And while I agree that it’s paying more than Lincecum than he’s worth, I like the deal because of two factors: The Replacement Player and The Upside.

Start with The Replacement Player conundrum.  Who else would replace Lincecum?  Go ahead and take a look at the list of free agent starting pitchers here.  Take note that of the 57 guys on that list, the 13 with asterisks have options that may keep them off the market.  Some may retire.  It’s not a long list.  You can add one guy, Masahiro Tanaka, to that list that is a big talent, but that doesn’t add much.

Now, think, the team would have had to add three players from that list, if Lincecum was not to be one of them.

Not only is that list short on talent, but it’s going to be complicated by 30 teams competing for those names.  There aren’t many combinations of three names that would help make up a championship rotation there.  But Lincecum is a part of more of those than not.  And he’d have gotten a pretty good payday out there, whether you think he’s worth it or not.  Paying a little more to not have to compete with other teams, that’s not a bad idea.

And then there’s the upside.  Lincecum has it.

No, Lincecum’s fastball is unlikely to come back.  But he’s shown a lot of signs that he’s coming to terms with that.  He had a good summer.  Generally, he had more good starts than bad ones, with his bad ones being really bad.  But his good starts would still be really good.  He may not be great.  But he could be.  We’re not talking about a guy who’s coming to the end of his career, we’re talking about a 29-year old.

Now go look at that list again…  How many names on there would you think could be?  Ricky Nolasco?  Josh Johnson?  Bruce Chen?  There are some serviceable pitchers on that list, but with a #3 pitcher, you’d like to have a guy who can be more than serviceable.  Now, sure, the Giants could still get a guy who’s better than Lincecum for the #3 rotation spot.  That’d be great.  But I’d definitely prefer Lincecum there.

Now, sure, the Giants could still bring back Ryan Vogelsong for a spot.  Vogelsong could be good, and he would be cheap (at his $6.5M option).  But while he has been an All-Star pitcher more recently than Lincecum, he’s also riskier.  He’s 36, and coming back from an injury to his pitching hand.  At times, he looked good after his injury.  And then in September, he looked less good.  For a one year deal, with Crick close, it’s not a bad risk to take, but he’s no sure thing either.

So, yes, I like the deal.  It’s not perfect.  But getting good players are rarely cheap.

But then there’s still that Kanye thing.  I was really rallying against it and how horrible and stupid and embarrassing it was, and then I read Ray Ratto’s article on it.  And then I realized how stupid I was sounding.

Let’s face it, in a year or two, few people will remember the proposal.  It’ll help that it’s unlikely that the marriage will still be around.  Those that will remember will be the most hardcore Giants fans, or the most hardcore pop culture fans.  But seriously, I can’t say I know of any spots where a celebrity got engaged.  I doubt few would remember where most celebrities get married.

So, they got engaged.  It is silly, and stupid, and horrible, and embarrassing, but not to us.

After all, those two are the Dodger fans.  And they got engaged at the Giants’ home field.