The Lunatic Fringe

So, yeah, that was definitely from out of nowhere.

The Arizona Diamondbacks signing Zack Greinke redefines both the offseason and the division.  It makes three teams contenders, but each with questions and none overwhelming.  I’m going to save my Giants for last in this analysis, but here’s my hot take.

How Good Are The Diamondbacks Now

The Diamondbacks now have two bonafide superstars, in Zack Greinke as Paul Goldschmidt, and one rising star in A.J. Pollack.  Most of their starters are young.  There’s a core here.

But is it so good?

Arizona was a good offensive team last season.  They were second in the league in runs scored, led by the 3rd-best batting average, 3rd-best OBP, and 2nd-best slugging.  That output was truly pushed by the corner outfielders that the Diamondbacks leaned on.  It was also despite getting two league-low OPS totals in the infield.

The infield is the Diamondbacks’ weakness, of course other than Goldschmidt.  The Aaron Hill experiment appears to be over, and Chris Owings moved into a starting role.  He wasn’t just bad, he was awful.  The league’s worst second baseman, offensively.  Owings was a top prospect after a monster half-season in 2012 in Visalia, and a monster 2013 in Reno.  But in his third overall year in the majors, and first full season, his performance plummeted.  Behind that, Jake Lamb was another top prospect at third, but his first full season was only pedestrian after a poor first partial season.

Meanwhile, shortstop Nick Ahmed is a defensive star, but also had an awful year.  Unlike Owings, he doesn’t have any minor league pedigree offensively, and is unlikely to improve.  At catcher, Wellington Castro was much improved after a midseason trade, but appears he’ll be a low batting average with pop kind of catcher.

The Diamondback spent much of the season trying to fill in holes all over the infield.  Most people expect Lamb to take a step forward eventually.  Maybe there’s hope for Owings, but probably not.  Castro is limited, and his power could fall off a cliff if pitchers figure him out again like they were in Chicago.  And Ahmed is not going to hit better.

That leaves the Diamondbacks with their outfield.

David Peralta was signed by the Diamondbacks out of indy ball, as he had reworked himself from a pitcher to an outfielder.  He had good minor league seasons, but much older than his competition.  His rookie year was two halves, with a regression in the second half, but in 2015, he got stronger in the second half.  But 2015 was the first time Peralta had played over 100 games.

Ender Inciarte was a versatile outfielder, with good average, good speed, but not much pop.  Inciarte is also just in his second season, and was a bit of a late bloomer in the minors.  He’s not going to be a power hitter, and has a platoon weakness against left-handers.

That’s an offense hanging on a lot of young players.  What will happen to this lineup if leadoff hitter Inciarte returns to being a .280 hitter instead of .300?  If David Peralta gets injured again?  The Diamondbacks have room for growth in Lamb and Owings, but that’s a lot to hope for.  There’s also Yasmany Tomas, but if he starts to hit, any position he plays will be a major hit defensively.  If Greinke is going to win, he’s not going to have a lot of offense to count on.

But with all those offensive questions, what about the pitching?  Corbin looked good in his half-season return from Tommy John, and is a good number two behind Greinke.  Chase Anderson has had an up and down career in the minors, but there’s not much more to expect than a mid-4 ERA pitcher.  Robbie Ray had a career-year with Arizona, and could fall back.  Rubby De La Rosa is….well, probably the next one out of the rotation.  And the bullpen is very middle-of-the-road.

The Diamondbacks are praised for being young, for a great offensive season, and now for an aggressive offseason.  But the youth is something that could always go both ways, and the very things that make the Diamondbacks interesting could hurt them.

What do the Diamondbacks do from here?

This is hard to predict, no one thought the Diamondbacks had the budget for this.  And reportedly, the Diamondbacks are still in on pitchers like Mike Leake to help the rotation further.  But they might be better served to address second base (again), or catcher.

How are the Dodgers going to cope without Greinke?

The rotation is weak.  Two starters they desperately need missed time with injuries.  Hyun-Jin Ryu should be back early in the season.  Brandon McCarthy won’t be back until after the All-Star Break.  The rest of the rotation is the inconsistent (Brett Anderson), the questionable (Alex Wood), and…well, Mike Bolsinger.

Okay, the rotation isn’t the worst of the worst, but there’s a lot of unremarkable there behind Kershaw.  And the bullpen is still very bad other than Kenley Jansen as closer.

However, the Dodgers have the most settled lineup in the NL West.  Adrian Gonzalez is still a masher in the heart of the lineup.  Corey Seager emerged at shortstop, and should be a star.  And Yasiel Puig is still talented as all heck.  Enrique Hernandez and Justin Turner have settled in in the field, though it’ll be interesting to see if they can keep themselves performing like they have.  Yasmani Grandal and A.J. Ellis are the catchers and are the weakest links in the offense.

Any questions are in the outfield.  The Dodgers still have four outfielders.  Joc Pederson learned how fickle baseball can be when loving rookies, but he won’t always be as bad as his second half.  Carl Crawford is a starter of diminished expectations, and Andre Ethier is, always, better than average but not by much.

And then there’s Puig.  Is he going to be traded?  Is he going to be healthy?  Is he going to be positive or negative?  And how is he going to react to Dave Roberts, one of baseball’s great guys?

This, however, is a lineup that can still earn a lot of runs, and will.  It’s the deepest and most talented in the NL West.  And as long as injuries don’t take too much of a toll, or Hernandez or Turner fall off a cliff, the offense will keep this team afloat.

What do the Dodgers do from here?

Obviously, they’re going to pursue more pitching upgrades.  They’re likely the default favorites on Johnny Cueto, especially since the Giants seem disinterested in him.  Kenta Maeda is a possibility.  Same with Jeff Samardzija.  But this team really needs to fix the bullpen as well, and has already missed out on Darren O’Day, the best middle reliever on the market.

It wouldn’t hurt for them to keep looking for a primary catcher (other than Kershaw’s favorite, A.J. Ellis), but the catching market isn’t great.

What do the Giants do?

Losing out on Greinke leaves the Giants…right where they were before.  The rotation has a lot of questions.  Madison Bumgarner is still the ace.  Jake Peavy isn’t special but effective.  Matt Cain is still a lot of questions, but not going anywhere soon.  Chris Heston had a great first half, but a really weak second half.  The Giants are treating this rotation as one with two open spots.

The Giants counter it with a good bullpen.  Even with the retiring Jeremy Affeldt, the Giants have a fairly settled bullpen.  Santiago Casilla is the closer, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez and George Kontos anchor an experienced and mostly reliable late inning rotation.  Meanwhile, the Giants are raising a new young core to this bullpen, led by Hunter Strickland and Josh Osich, and could have even more relievers coming up.  This is the team’s strength.

The lineup has its questions, though.  Buster Posey and Hunter Pence are still the heart of it.  Brandon Crawford was a spectacular player this year, and while it’s crazy to expect his offense to keep at his 2015 level, but he should be continue to be good.  Brandon Belt is still, as ever….waiting to break through.  But his injuries are beginning to become too derailing.  Joe Panik’s back makes him a question, but he was following up his good rookie campaign with a better sophomore campaign.

The real questions are in center and left.  Left field is the more obvious hole, with only perennial 3.5th outfielder Gregor Blanco there.  Blanco always starts on the bench but finds his way into a starting role.  However, center field is also a real question.  His knee greatly limited him this season, and at 35, he’s not likely to bounce back entirely.

Where do the Giants go from here?

Clearly, Plan B is off the market (David Price).  So is Plan C (Jordan Zimmermann).  And Plan F (John Lackey).  But other pitchers are there.  And let’s be honest, even after Greinke, Mike Leake was always a big option to return to San Francisco.  Now more than ever, even after his disappointing post-trade performance.  Samardzija is a big option here.  Kenta Maeda hasn’t been mentioned around the Giants much, but the Giants aren’t likely to leave that tire unkicked.

However, the Giants aren’t completely reliant on free agents.  Chris Heston is still possible, and Clayton Blackburn just led the Pacific Coast League in ERA, and while he’s not an overwhelming pitcher, he could very easily be effective.  And with that, the Giants could make their splash in left field.  Both Ben Zobrist and Alex Gordon are still on the market, and the Giants have the financial flexibility to make that happen.

To be sure, Greinke shaped the offseason, just not in the way any team expected.  The next week will definitely be interesting to watch now.