I’ve been rough on Ryan Vogelsong this season because, well, his pitching had been pretty rough.  I thought he’d be the first one to miss a start, but not like this.  Seeing him get hit on the hand pretty much ruined a big win that the Giants (and their fans) needed.

Vogelsong’s comeback story will always be one of my favorite stories of Giants for the rest of my life, wherever his story goes from here.  We’ve seen a few natural superstars, some underdogs and some renaissances, but few players ever are a true story of inspiration like Vogelsong has been.  I expect he has another comeback in him.

Unfortunately, we do need to talk about what happens now before that comeback happens.  The Giants need a starter, and not just a spot starter.  They’ll need a two-month guy that can come into a rotation in turmoil and turn things around.  So here’s some odds on who might come in and slip into that 5th spot.

Mike Kickham: The 24-year old lefty prospect has always been an under-the-radar kind of guy, but that’s mostly because his stats have never been too overwhelming.  Still, Kickham opened some eyes in Richmond, posting a 3.05 ERA with 137 strikeouts against 75 walks.  That 137 strikeouts was second in the league.  He has a fastball in the low 90s with a decent slider and changeup, but he lives on having a lot of motion on his pitches.

This season, Kickham started off a bit rough in Fresno with three straight starts of allowing five runs or more to end the month of April.  However, since May has begun he has a 1.80 ERA in four starts.

As a prospect, I’ve never been overly high on Kickham because of his tendency to be a bit wild.  That was one of his downsides in Richmond, and he hasn’t been great with his control in Fresno either.  He’ll need to have Posey behind the plate to keep his wildness from becoming wild pitches, and to keep him calm.  He’ll be facing mature hitters who will wait for their pitch, and as a rookie, he won’t get a lot of calls his way.  That has flustered him in the past.

That said, I think Kickham makes the most sense for this move.  He’s got the best upside, is the most ready and has the best momentum. Odds: 5-to-2

Chad Gaudin: No doubt about it, he’s having the best season of his life.  At 30 and in his 11th season in the majors, his 2.10 ERA so far is easily his best season mark in his career, but there’s a lot of season to go.  Despite a three-run hiccup in Toronto, Gaudin has consistently been one of the best Giants’ relievers in the bullpen, going longer stints and shorter ones, and been a calming influence on games that the starters had sometimes let get out of control.

The downside is that starting is something from long ago for him, and he’s never been successful at it.  He hasn’t started in the majors at all since 2009, and he’s never been particularly good at it.  The last games he started in the minors were nine starts in 2009, and he had a 5.24 ERA overall in 14 appearances.  His longest outing of the season was that three-run game in Toronto, where he threw 72 pitches; before that, he’d broken the plane of 35 pitches in an outing only once.  The other side is that he is getting hit harder by lefties (.843 OPS against) than he did as a starter.  In that 2009 season the OPS against was just .823.

Gaudin also gets points for being on the 40-man roster, unlike Kickham and Loux.  He also gets points for having a chin beard, an intimidating addition to the Giants’ lineup of facial hair matchups.

I like Gaudin.  He was a great pickup in the offseason, and I think the long relief role has been a great find for him.  But it’s hard for me to see the Giants trying to stretch him out now.  Odds: 7-to-2

Shane Loux: Loux, at least, is a known quantity to Giants fans.  He made 19 appearances for the team in 2012, with a 4.97 ERA.  But Loux doesn’t have a great Major League track record behind him.  He’s played only parts of five seasons in the majors, racking up 58 appearances and 13 starts (none of which came with the Giants).  However, he was a starter in Fresno in both 2011 and is again this season (notably working solely as a reliever last season).

Loux has made seven starts, putting up a 3.68 ERA.  He’s had a fair mix of starts, both good and not-as-good  He had his best, a six-inning start allowing just two hits, a walk and only an unearned run, this past Friday.  However, to say he’s not overpowering is a bit of an understatement.  He’s struck out only 15 batters in 36 2/3 innings, which is also how many he’s walked.

There’s no doubt that Loux is an underwhelming option.  In the past, as a starter, he’s rarely been encouraging, though he has been recently.  If this were a single, spot start, I’d be picking him.  But for a longer stint, I think major league teams would be likely to adapt to him quickly.  I don’t see it. Odds: 5-to-1

Chris Heston: The 25-year old Heston got a bit of a bandwagon going after winning the ERA title in the Double-A Eastern League last season, posting a 2.24 ERA.  With 135 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings, and just 40 walks, he seemed to be in line to be the fabled sixth starter-in-waiting.

However, his lack of velocity (he works in the upper 80’s as a right-hander) along with some possibly bad luck, and he’s run into trouble in Fresno.  He has a 5.33 ERA in nine starts, and most notably, he’s getting hit around.  His WHIP has jumped from 1.103 in Double-A to 1.658 so far in Fresno, both thanks to giving up more hits and more walks.

Heston’s not one to be given up on as a prospect quite yet, and he has a small thing going for him by being on the 40-man roster already, but he clearly isn’t ready for the majors yet. Odds: 15-to-1

Justin Fitzgerald: Now 27, the Santa Rosa native and UC Davis grad started the season in Richmond.  He had a 1.09 ERA in six starts, and then moved up to Fresno, where in his only start he gave up two earned runs in five innings, albeit while giving up nine hits and two walks.  What is unpalatable about this is that it was Fitzgerald’s third season at Richmond, which is rare for any prospect to manage without a major injury or rehab.  At three repeats, a huge improvement is almost expected.

The 11th round pick has been nothing if not consistent the rest of his career, posting a slowly improving ERA that went from 3.86 in 2008 to 3.22 this season.  He got some attention for flashing 95 MPH in college, but has been closer to the low-90′s as a pro.  He’s just been steady, other than his unusual repetitions in Richmond.

Honestly, I’m going through this just to let you know who he is.  Fitzgerald was placed on the DL by Fresno on Thursday, May 16th, and was expected to miss two turns at least with a right elbow strain.  That means he’s pretty much unavailable right now.  He might be a consideration down the line if the initial replacement struggles, but he’ll need to come back and prove he can handle some Triple-A starts first.  Odds: 100-to-1 for now, 8-to-1 in mid-June.

Kyle Crick/Clayton Blackburn/Chris Stratton: I don’t need to separate any of these three out.  All these top prospects are pitching at Single-A.  Not only is that a fair indication of not being ready for the majors, but it also means their development is far off and that pushing anyone to the majors will start their options clock far too early.  Some crazy KNBR callers may want to see them, but it ain’t happening: Odds: 113-to-1

Brian Wilson: Please.  Odds: Slightly Better Than Finding Sasquatch

What’s more worrying is the pitching.  Pitching’s harder to tweak and fix.  Pitching can fluctuate from year to year.  But practically everyone’s fluctuated this year.  Lincecum.  Cain.  Vogelsong…oh, especially Vogelsong.  Zito’s actually just…Zito.  And Bumgarner seems to have caught it now.

The backup options in the system don’t look all that good.  Mike Kickham seems to be the top of the list.  This is a pitcher that I’ve rarely considered as a top prospect.  He feels more like a back-of-the-rotation, long-relief and maybe a journeyman style career.  Maybe Shane Loux.  Hell, Chad Gaudin feels like a better option right now.

And don’t look now, but the top pitching prospects are in Single-A ball right now.  Kyle Crick has fought injuries, and made only three starts.  Although he has only a 0.93 ERA, he has a team-high 1.97 WHIP, and only owes his low ERA to a lot of unearned runs having come in.  (Well, he’d be ready for this team right now.)  Clayton Blackburn has struggled as of late after a strong start, with a 4.39 ERA and a 2-2 record after giving up five runs in each of his last three starts.  Chris Stratton is way down in Low-A Augusta, with a 3.38 ERA.  He’s been effective, but hasn’t been dominating as some had hoped.

So, don’t look now, but the Giants have a possible THREE rotation spots open after this season…and no obvious prospects to fill such roles right away.

You know what this means?  Two things…

• The pitchers are throwing themselves into the short-term contracts the Giants may be hoping to get them on.

• You’re going to hear a lot more bitching in the coming year about how the Giants traded away Zack Wheeler in 2011.  The same Zack Wheeler who is considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and is about to make the majors.  @LOLKNBRCallers, you know what to do.

It’s been hard to watch the pitching fail this season.  Maybe it’s our fault for expecting so much…but wow, this isn’t just a few rough starts now.  Cain and Lincecum at least have had a couple of good starts recently, but it’s not to the point where I trust them yet.

How did we get to the point where Lincecum, Vogelsong and Zito’s contracts are all up this season, and the one that looks like the best bet to come back is Zito???

He’s the guy who makes people who say “You can’t teach stuff!” look bad.

There has never been any doubting Sanchez’s talent and ability, or his ceiling.  But he almost never hits it.

What’s worse, with the Giants, he came close enough often enough to keep the Giants in a bad situation.

Sure, he threw the no-hitter in 2009, which was just about his highest point.  He did it int he midst of a mediocre 4.52 ERA season.  In 2010, he came about as close to his ceiling as possible, posting a 3.44 ERA in the World Series season.  But his wildness and temper nearly cost his team a key game in the NLCS, and he was easily the weak link for the Giants in the World Series.

And that’s Jonathan Sanchez at his average: he’ll do good enough for you to see his best, so that you count on him when it’s important, and then he’ll show you his worst.  Since 2011, he hasn’t even been that.

Sanchez is still one of the Giants in that amazing 2010 season.  That no-hitter is still an indelible memory.  I was driving from Boston to Norwich to cover the then-AA farm team for the Giants (the Connecticut Defenders), and as I waited for my food at a convenient rest stop McDonalds late at night, I realized the game would still be on back home.  So, I started streaming the radio feed through the MLB app on my iPhone, and I got to listen to it live, after midnight, on the east coast.  It was amazing.

But I breathed a sigh of relief when he was traded to the Royals for Melky Cabrera.  It was a deal I couldn’t agree with Sabean more about.  And I haven’t missed him as a player.

I do wish him the best whenever he’s not a Dodger…but I’ve long since stopped expecting it, or even hoping for it.

And how in the hell did the Royals pull off sending Sanchez to the Colorado Rockies for Jeremy Guthrie?  Wow.

One other thing…

With Melky Cabrera’s latest lie, albeit such a small and meaningless one, he’s quickly shredding any possible sympathy or good feelings I had for him.  Could the Blue Jays please trade him to the Dodgers?  There are few players not named Shane Victorino or Mat Latos I am quickly developing such bad feelings for.

You’re going to get inundated with Melky articles today and tomorrow, and maybe even Wednesday.  Few players ever left their team in such dubious circumstances, and few times has it ever turned out as well for the team and as…dubiously as it does for the player.

What happened to Toronto, anyway?  Remember when they were the offseason darlings?  Is it really that hard to pitch in Canada?  I mean, I wasn’t expecting R.A. Dickey to have another Cy Young-type season, but jeeze.

Fire Angel Hernandez.  The dude has been involved in far too many blown calls and embarrassments to baseball.

And from now on, hold umpires accountable.  Umpiring should not be like a teacher with tenure.  If you don’t perform well, your job should be at risk.  Just like the rest of us.

Melrose said “No.”  And that was the end of the segment.

Also, congrats to the Warriors for…um…making an indelible memory for Warriors fans?  I don’t know.  It’s one thing for an underdog to get convincingly blown out in the first game of a playoff series on the road.  But to turn such a convincing win into a loss is much, much worse.  Watching the Warriors play with a lead is like watching any NFL team employ the Prevent defense.  It was a ridiculous effort on every front, including Klay Thompson foolishly fouling out, prompting announcer Chris Webber to jinxingly note that “They don’t need him anymore.”

Also, announcer Chris Webber?  What?

Meanwhile, your San Francisco Giants lose two in a row to the Phillies.  It’s hard to fault the Giants too much; they drew the two toughest members of the Philadelphia rotation, and got handcuffed.  Let’s face it, the vaunted rotation of the Phillies never came to be after 2011, especially with Roy Halladay’s decent into where Tim Lincecum went last year.  But they have some good pitchers still, and those pitchers beat the Giants.  Two losses after a win streak isn’t too much to get up in arms about, and the losses were easy to lose sight of in the wake of non-baseball playoffs going on.

But it was a reminder: Good pitching wins, and right now the Giants don’t have good pitching.

Look, Bumgarner has enough credit built up this season to not get any grief for an off-day, but I think it’s clear that Lincecum’s problem go beyond having an inexperience Henry Sanchez catching him instead of Buster Posey.  Which leaves us with the fact that no one has any clue why he is no longer a Cy Young contender.  Add in that Matt Cain’s fly ball rate has turned into a home run vulnerability, and the Ryan Vogelsong is suddenly ordinary again, and you know where Giants fans are left at?

They left at the realization that Barry Zito’s vesting option getting vested is no longer a negative view of the future.  Because none of the team’s young pitching stars in the minors will be ready for 2014.

It’s only May…it’s only May…

That was an important series.  It was the top two teams battling late in the year, jostling for home-field advantage.  But it isn’t immortalized in replay videos or anything..  Barry Bonds didn’t have a lot of walkoff home runs, and he hit two in three games, but it isn’t one of those iconic moments.  Because it wasn’t against the Dodgers.

Only time will tell if what happened this weekend will be one of those immortal memories.  Brian Johnson’s walkoff home run had all the key elements of an immortal highlight: it was against the Dodgers, it was in extra innings, and it was late in the season with playoff implications.  The pair this weekend don’t have the late-in-the-season quality, and they weren’t against a great Dodgers team.  Sure, the Dodgers were picked by many to win the division, but no one’s going to remember that if they continue to have so many troubles this season.

Ironically, the Quiroz homer may be remembered longer just because it’s not a big name hitting it.  Let’s face it, if Johnson had not hit that home run, would most of us remember his name?  Probably not.  This was the biggest hit (so far) of Quiroz’s career.  But for Posey?  One could argue it was the second-biggest hit of his career so far…I think the clear biggest hit was the grand slam against the Reds in the NLDS.   But Posey’s career will likely be filled with highlights.

Still, it was a Dodgers sweep, and those clips will be added to the rivalry highlight reel.  And maybe when the Dodgers keep coming back to town, those big hits and the amazing calls by Jon Miller and Duane Kuiper will come back and remind us of how great this May weekend was.

Right now, I’m sure the Spurs are licking their chops at how the Warriors absolutely fell apart in the face of pressure, simple double-teams and pretty much any ballhandling that involved Jarrett Jack and not Stephen Curry.  At least the Warriors have a few days to figure out if Draymond Green can be the team’s point guard alternative.  And, you know, how to inbound the ball.

At least I stopped feeling nostalgic for the Warriors I’ve watched for years.

On the other hand, everything feels good about the Giants once again with a sweep of the Diamondbacks, just in time to let our confidence get suckerpunched by Clayton Kershaw.

I realize that right now, Barry Zito is one of the two pitchers I’m more comfortable with seeing go in this game.  I’m also starting to look online into information on how to escape weird parallel universes, because I don’t know when the one where I have confidence in Barry Zito will start to implode on itself like that warp bubble on Star Trek: The Next Generation.

Also, can someone tell the Warriors that this gameplan is not cute for them?  The refs in the NBA have the habit of starting to call the game like the umpires in that 19-inning game in Oakland did; they just want to go home.  Except the umps in Oakland waited until the 16th inning to do that…NBA refs will start three minutes into the 4th quarter.

Seriously, those NBA refs last night had me nostalgic for the days of NFL replacement refs.  Ugh.